SoFi Technologies has spent 2026 growing almost every operating line it reports and getting punished for it in the stock market. Shares of the San Francisco lender and digital bank closed at $14.62 on Oct. 23, down about 44% this year and roughly 55% below the 52-week high of $32.73, according to MarketBeat data. The stock touched a 52-week low of $13.86 on Oct. 15.
The gap between the business and the share price is the central question heading into third-quarter results, which SoFi said it will release before the open on Tuesday, Oct. 27, with a call at 8 a.m. Eastern. Revenue, members and originations are all at records. The worry on Wall Street is capital: how much of it SoFi burns to fund that growth when interest rates move against a balance sheet that is marked to fair value every quarter.
The second quarter: records across the board
In its second-quarter earnings release, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on July 29, SoFi reported adjusted net revenue of $1.21 billion, up 40% from a year earlier. GAAP net revenue rose 43% to $1.22 billion. Net income climbed 61% to $156.6 million, or 12 cents a diluted share, compared with 8 cents a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA rose 44% to a record $357.8 million, a 30% margin.
The company added a record 1.1 million members, lifting the total to 15.8 million, up 35% from a year earlier. Products grew 42% to 24.4 million after a record 2.2 million additions, the first quarter in which SoFi added twice as many products as members. Products per member reached 1.54, and 51% of new products were opened by existing members, up from 35% a year earlier.
“2026 is shaping up to be a defining year, and our second quarter results mark a clear inflection point for SoFi,” Chief Executive Anthony Noto said in the release.
Total loan originations hit a record $14.8 billion, up 69% from a year earlier. Personal loans accounted for $10.7 billion of that, including $3.1 billion originated on behalf of third parties through the Loan Platform Business. Student loan volume rose 170% to $2.7 billion and home loan volume rose 74% to $1.4 billion. Deposits grew $5.3 billion in the quarter to $45.5 billion.
| Quarter | Adjusted net revenue | GAAP net income | Adjusted EBITDA | Members |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $858.2 | $97.3 | $249.1 | 11.75 |
| Q3 2025 | $949.6 | $139.4 | $276.9 | 12.64 |
| Q4 2025 | $1,012.8 | $173.5 | $317.6 | 13.65 |
| Q1 2026 | $1,087.2 | $166.7 | $339.9 | 14.71 |
| Q2 2026 | $1,205.6 | $156.6 | $357.8 | 15.81 |
The table shows the tension investors are wrestling with. Revenue has risen every quarter, but GAAP net income has slipped for two straight quarters from its fourth-quarter peak. Part of that is taxes. Chief Financial Officer Chris Lapointe told analysts on the earnings call that the full-year EPS outlook “now includes a tax rate of 22%, which is approximately 700 basis points higher than our original guidance.” Part of it is spending on new businesses that were not in the original 2026 plan.
Three segments, moving at different speeds
Lending is still the engine. Segment GAAP net revenue rose 63% to $724.8 million, driven by a 54% jump in net interest income and a 64% increase in loan origination fees. Contribution profit rose 63% to $399.0 million.
Financial Services, which houses SoFi Money, Relay, Invest, the credit card, crypto and the Loan Platform Business, grew net revenue 29% to $466.3 million. Contribution margin fell to 46% from 52% as directly attributable expenses rose 46%. The Loan Platform Business added $143.3 million to adjusted net revenue. Interchange fees rose 55% on $28 billion of annualized spending, and brokerage fees rose nearly 2.5 times.
The Technology Platform, built on the Galileo processing business and now branded SoFi Tech Solutions, is the weak spot. Revenue fell 23% from a year earlier to $84.5 million after a large client left the platform before the end of 2025, though it rose 13% from the first quarter. Contribution margin dropped to 14% from 30%. Enabled accounts fell 16% to 135 million but added 2 million in the quarter.
| Segment | Net revenue Q2 2026 | Net revenue Q2 2025 | Change | Contribution profit Q2 2026 | Contribution margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lending | $724.8 | $443.5 | Up 63% | $399.0 | 55% |
| Financial Services | $466.3 | $362.5 | Up 29% | $212.7 | 46% |
| Technology Platform | $84.5 | $109.8 | Down 23% | $11.8 | 14% |
Fee-based revenue, the capital-light income that management wants to grow faster than the balance sheet, reached $472.3 million, or 39% of total revenue, up 22% from the first quarter. Loan origination fees of $198.5 million were the largest piece, followed by $140.9 million of loan platform fees and $50.5 million of technology services revenue.
Crypto, SoFi Plus and the push beyond loans
SoFi returned to crypto trading in the fourth quarter of 2025 and ended June with 388,336 crypto products. The business is still small in revenue terms: net crypto transaction revenue was $1.2 million in the second quarter. SoFi Invest grew 38% to 3.9 million products.
Management is leaning harder on newer products. The paid SoFi Plus subscription passed 200,000 members after its relaunch, and Noto set a public marker on the call: “I’d be disappointed if we are not at 1 million SoFi Plus members generating annual revenue of $120 million a year from now.” The company also launched small business loans, an AI-powered investing platform called Composer by SoFi, and Big Business Banking, which settles transactions in its SoFiUSD stablecoin. After the quarter ended, SoFi added home equity loans to the Loan Platform Business.
Credit and capital
Credit is not the problem right now. The personal loan annualized net charge-off rate fell to 2.62% from 3.03% in the first quarter and 21 basis points below a year earlier. Excluding late-stage delinquent loan sales, SoFi estimated the all-in rate at about 3.7%, a 70 basis point improvement from the prior quarter. The on-balance sheet 90-day delinquency rate for personal loans was 40 basis points, down 7 basis points from the first quarter, Lapointe said. Student loan charge-offs fell to 61 basis points, with 90-day delinquencies at 11 basis points.
Capital is where the debate sits. SoFi ended June with an estimated common equity tier 1 ratio of 18.7% and a total risk-based capital ratio of 18.8%, against a regulatory minimum of 10.5% for the latter. Tangible book value rose to $9.5 billion, or $7.34 a share, up 56% from $4.72 a year earlier. Lapointe said management wants the risk-based capital ratio to “normalize toward the low to mid-teens” over the medium term, and that “we believe that we can operate comfortably within our target capital range without the need to raise capital under our current operating plan.”
The fair value model is the swing factor. Personal and home loans are held for sale and student loans are held for investment, all carried at fair value. The personal loan book was marked at 104.7% of par at the end of June, “down 71 basis points from the prior quarter,” Lapointe said, driven by a higher discount rate as benchmark rates rose. The weighted average discount rate on personal loans rose to 4.97% from 4.61% in the first quarter, according to the release.
Valuation
At $14.62, SoFi trades at about 2.0 times its June tangible book value per share of $7.34 and at about 24 times management’s 2026 adjusted EPS target of roughly 60 cents. MarketBeat lists a trailing price to earnings ratio of 30.4 and a market value of about $18.9 billion. The stock trades on whether SoFi can keep compounding revenue in the 30% range while lifting margins.
Management raised its 2026 adjusted net revenue outlook in July to $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion, implying growth of about 32% to 35%. It held its targets of roughly $1.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA, about $825 million in adjusted net income and adjusted EPS of about 60 cents, and still expects members to grow at least 30%. Lapointe said the forecast assumed one to two Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026, rather than the two cuts SoFi had expected when it first issued guidance.
The arithmetic for the back half is demanding. SoFi booked $2.29 billion of adjusted net revenue and $327.1 million of adjusted net income in the first six months. Hitting the midpoint of revenue guidance requires about $2.51 billion in the second half, and the net income target requires roughly $498 million, about 52% more profit than the first half on modestly higher revenue.
What analysts say
Wall Street is split. MarketBeat lists a consensus rating of Hold and an average price target of $22.05. Its mid-October tally showed one Strong Buy, nine Buy, eleven Hold and three Sell ratings.
The most pointed bear is Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, which cut its target to $15 from $16 on Oct. 12 and kept an Underperform rating. KBW said SoFi’s fair value accounting makes it hard to hit guidance without accelerated capital consumption in quarters with large rate increases, and estimated a gross headwind of more than $1.0 billion in the third quarter before hedging offsets. Its base case still has SoFi meeting consensus and guidance for the quarter.
Truist cut its target to $16 from $19 on Oct. 23 and kept a Hold, citing the adverse impact of higher rates on payments and fintech names, according to Benzinga. TD Cowen trimmed its target to $17.50 from $18 with a Hold on Oct. 6, and Mizuho cut to $22 from $29 while keeping Outperform after the second quarter, MarketBeat reported.
On the other side, StoneX initiated coverage at Buy with a $25 target on Oct. 13, and Benchmark upgraded the shares to Strong Buy. Scotiabank started at Sector Outperform with a $25 target in September, Needham rates the stock Buy with a $24 target, and Loop Capital began at Hold with a $22 target.
Bull case and bear case
The bull case is that SoFi is a scaled, profitable digital bank still growing members 35% a year, with credit improving, a 40% revenue growth rate and a widening base of fee income that does not require balance sheet capital. Cross-buy is accelerating, deposits are cheap relative to warehouse funding, and at about two times tangible book the stock prices in far less growth than the company is delivering.
The bear case is that reported earnings depend heavily on fair value marks that move with rates, that growth is consuming capital fast, and that the Technology Platform is shrinking. If rates keep climbing, the marks on a $46.6 billion fair value loan book become a drag, and the excess capital cushion that funds today’s origination pace narrows. Higher spending has already pushed the Financial Services contribution margin down six percentage points in a year.
What to watch on Oct. 27
Analysts polled by Zacks expect third-quarter EPS of 17 cents and revenue of $1.26 billion, up 32.4% from a year earlier, according to a preview published on Yahoo Finance. The same consensus calls for net interest income of $840.99 million and loan platform fees of $156.16 million.
Five items will decide how the stock trades:
- Fair value marks and hedges. How large the rate headwind turned out to be, and how much hedging offset it.
- Capital ratios. Where CET1 and total capital land relative to June’s 18.7% and 18.8%, and whether management repeats that it needs no new equity.
- Guidance. Whether SoFi holds the $825 million adjusted net income and 60 cent EPS targets, which imply a sharp second-half ramp.
- Loan Platform Business volume. Whether the move into small business and home equity loans lifts fee revenue that does not consume capital.
- Credit. Whether personal loan charge-offs stay near the 2.62% reported in June as the book grows.
For a stock already down by nearly half this year, a clean read on capital may matter more than another revenue record.